With only a few weeks before the World Cup, a fortune-telling supercomputer has predicted England to leave the Qatar pitch earlier than expected.
Contrived by BCA research, a global investment analysis institution, the forecast sidelines the Three Lions to lose to Portugal in the World Cup semi-finals.
Using statistical data from the last four World Cups and incorporating it with FIFA ratings, England’s chances are not as promising as their fans anticipate.
Placed in Group B, England is rated the highest to defeat the United States, Wales, and Iran with a 96% probability.
“Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka have been in great shape since the start of the season, and the overall player quality will allow England to dominate the group,” states BCA research.
The research positioned the English squad to defeat Mexico in the quarterfinal stage, with Germany against Portgual facing off in a tough match.
With only a 56% likelihood, Cristiano Ronaldo will lead his team past the Germans to meet Gareth Southgate’s team in the semifinals.
“Our model predicts that Portugal will finally break through, giving them a 56% chance of advancing. Considering the attacking talent of these teams, including players like Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo, it is no surprise that our model gives a high likelihood for both teams to score,” the researchers said.
“After last year’s loss in the Euro final, England will not be going into penalties with a lot of confidence. Their World Cup history is not any more encouraging: They have won only one out of four penalty shoot-outs. In fact, the last time they met at the World Cup (2006), Portugal beat England in penalties.”
Ronaldo vs. Messi
Similar to past formulas, Argentina is predicted to be in this year’s finals.
Performing in one of his best seasons, the model predicts Lionel Messi’s squad to prevail through the group stage with 80%.
In the round of 16, Argentina and France are put up against one another, with Messi’s squad taking it all since the Parisians have numerous injuries.
“The French team has been marred by an alarming number of injuries and absences. While the team boasts some of the best attackers in the world, Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kanté, and Blaise Matuidi – the three key players in France’s midfield during the last World Cup – have either lost their form (Pogba), suffered injuries (Kanté), or are playing out their retirement in Florida (Matuidi),” BCA states.
The researchers cite France’s failures in preparations as another reason for their early exit. “Having won only one out of their last six games, the same record that Germany had before their 2018 debacle.”
Fast forward to the finals, Argentina will defeat The Netherlands in the quarterfinals, and Brazil will go against Portugal, the predictions say.
Argentina and Portugal are dubbed a one-man team, with Messi coming up on top to lift the golden trophy.
The supercomputer model places both teams with a 50% probability of winning, noting that the match is “like choosing between Mozart and Beethoven or between Da Vinci and Michelangelo.”
However, only one can win it, and Messi will since he has a historical advantage in both experience and success rate.
The researchers envision a penalty shoot-out will mark history for the Argentinians, and since the team has gone to the penalty five times in past World Cups and won four of them, the team has a better chance to take the game.
BCA research tags its model as a “coin toss,” claiming Argentina will have several close matches and nonetheless has a probability of winning the tournament with 7%, even as favorites.