Qatar’s foreign policy has long used comprehensive engagement and peaceful talks as means of solving issues and tackling differences.
Qatar successfully landed a historic prisoner exchange deal between Iran and the United States this week and analysts say Doha’s capacity to engage in dialogue with a wide range of actors is a “unique phenomenon” in today’s global landscape that has allowed it to enhance its position on the international stage.
The deal was a culmination of what many labelled as Qatar’s heavy ‘shuttle diplomacy’ as it raced back and forth between officials from Tehran and Washington in a bid to materialise a crucial prisoner swap between the long-standing adversaries.
“This is certainly another feather in the cap for Qatar’s image and global diplomatic track record,” Sami Hamdi, Editor-in-Chief of the International Interest, told Doha News.
“Doha’s ability to be able to ‘talk to everyone’ is an increasingly unique phenomenon in today’s world and will only strengthen its international standing.”
The exchange, which took place under the watchful eyes of Qatari mediators, highlights the country’s growing influence on the international stage. However, while celebrated as a positive sign of ongoing dialogue, the historic swap has raised questions about its significance in the larger context of Iran-US relations.
“The prisoners’ release does not signify a significant improvement in US-Iran relations; it certainly does not signal that an agreement on the Iran nuclear programme, for example, or any other major area of dispute is more likely now,” Tobias Borck, Senior Research Fellow at the International Security Studies at the Royal United Services, told Doha News.
“The deal is best seen as a modest sign that some degree of constructive engagement between Washington and Tehran is still possible – or possible again – even as relations remain severely strained.”
Other analysts suggest that while this development is encouraging, it may not represent a groundbreaking shift given the history of such concessions between the two nations.
“I think the prisoner exchange demonstrates that there are still channels of communication between the US and Iran, and that there is dialogue between the parties (which is a positive),” Hamdi said.
However, “this is not the first time the two have made similar concessions which raises questions as to the extent to which this can be considered a major development or breakthrough,” he added.
Doha voiced optimism following the landmark Iran-US prisoner swap in the Gulf nation on Monday which it said could be a crucial catalyst for advancement in relations between the long-standing adversaries.
When asked if this breakthrough could signify a potential reconciliation in Iran-US relations, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who is also the Gulf nation’s foreign minister responded optimistically, saying: “I cannot claim that this will lead to a nuclear deal, but it’s going definitely to lead to a better environment.”
“What happened yesterday actually was a great building block for rebuilding the confidence between the two countries,” the top official added.
Qatar’s banking infrastructure
The prisoner swap deal saw both sides release five prisoners each and $6 billion in Iranian assets unfrozen and sent from South Korea to banks in Qatar. As per the agreement, Doha is set to oversee the allocation and usage of the funds.
The Gulf state willingness to shoulder the hefty financial burden of transferring funds from South Korea to Switzerland, and eventually to Qatari banks, proved instrumental in facilitating the agreement.
This, coupled with Qatar’s established banking system and expertise required to oversee Iranian finances, positioned Doha as a central figure in executing the arrangement.
Qatar was considered the fitting mediator to broker the deal and subsequently host this historic swap, even though other mediators such as Oman and Switzerland were involved in the years-long process.
“I would not see this as a sign that Qatar is somehow better than Oman or Switzerland at mediating agreements like this; in this case, it was simply the country that had the ability – and the political will – to help get the deal done,” Borck argued.
Hamdi argued that this is due to “a willingness on the part of Qatar to cover the very expensive costs of the monetary transfers from Korea, to Switzerland, to the bank accounts in Qatar from which Iran will be able to have limited access to the funds.”
“The second has to do with Qatar’s existing banking infrastructure which lends itself more favourably to the unique complexities of the agreements,” Hamdi told Doha News, adding that the third reason falls within Qatar’s monitoring infrastructure which is “more easier to implement” than some of the other countries.
Why Qatar?
The trust between the US and Qatar stems from Doha’s past successes in negotiations, particularly in relation to Afghanistan, analysts said. As a staunch US ally in a region witnessing ever-shifting alliances, Qatar’s reliability holds strategic importance.
Qatar “remains a firm US ally in a region that is increasingly threatening to ‘look for allies elsewhere’, and also because there is no real financial cost to the US in this prisoner exchange,” Hamdi told Doha News.
Iran, too, placed its trust in Qatar.
“Iran trusts Qatar because it believes Doha has a vested interest in regional de-escalation after more than a decade of tension with its neighbours, and also believes that Doha values its strong economic ties with Iran that are worth protecting via de-escalation,” Hamid noted.
Meanwhile, Borck believes Qatar has consistently served as a crucial intermediary for the United States in its interactions with nations or entities with which direct relations are not maintained.
He said Tehran bestowed its trust in Qatar as “relations between Doha and Tehran have almost always been respectful and constructive.
“Joint ownership of the North Dome/South Pars Gas field means that both sides have an obvious interest in working together; past experiences such as Iran’s willingness to keep its airspace open for Qatari air traffic between 2017-2021 have also helped to build trust,” he added.
Qatar’s national interest
Qatar’s motivation for mediating the exchange goes beyond showcasing its diplomatic prowess, and analysts believe the Gulf nation holds that its security hinges on regional stability and de-escalation of tensions among the major powers in the region.
“For Qatar, the matter is less about showing off its mediation capabilities and more about tempering the worst of the enduring confrontation between Washington and Tehran that has the potential to plunge the region into further chaos and turmoil,” Hamdi told Doha News.
“Regional competition has already exacerbated wars in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, and Doha believes there is an imperative to facilitate dialogue in a manner that can help transform confrontation into a more healthy competition that does not undermine stability in the region,” he detailed.
Qatar’s foreign policy has long used comprehensive engagement and peaceful talks as means of solving issues and tackling differences.
Speaking to Doha News, Dr Kristian Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said the latest developments were a gain.
“To the extent that the prisoner swap indicates that the US and Iran can engage through dialogue and indirect diplomacy on specific issues, it is a gain for advocates of regional dialogue and for those who believe in de-escalating tensions rather than generating new flashpoints and potential triggers for conflict,” he said.
“The prisoner swap confirms Qatar’s status as the pre-eminent mediator in the Middle East and adds to a track record of achieving results that goes back more than a decade but which was for a time marginalised by post-2011 regional tension and diplomatic strain,” Ulrichsen added.
