Unpacking Qatar's potential route to the FIFA World Cup 2026

The Qatar national team is in a tricky position to finish within a direct qualification spot, having yet to win in their first two matches.

Qatar’s start to the new convoluted World Cup qualification process has been anything but impressive.

They suffered a 3-1 home defeat to the UAE on opening day, followed by a disappointing 2-2 draw against North Korea in Laos, a team ranked 76 places lower in the FIFA rankings.

Expectations on the reigning Asian champions were high, with the hopes of achieving perfect results to solidify their status as favourites to qualify for the World Cup 2026.

However, with just one point from two matches in Group A, Al Annabi find themselves in fifth place in their group, desperately needing to turn the tide to secure direct qualifications.

Current standings in Group A of the Asian Qualifiers. (Photo/ AFC)

A successful campaign for Bartolome Marquez Lopez’s team from here on might still see them qualify directly, finishing in the top two of their six-team group.

Failing to do so will make things complicated. However, there will be three chances afterwards for Al Annabi to qualify to the World Cup on merit for the first time.

The straightforward route

Eighteen teams are divided into three groups in the third round. With the number of qualification spots for the Asian continent increased to eight, this will allow six teams to qualify directly for the World Cup.

Many expected Qatar to be among the top two teams in their group, securing direct qualification.

If Marquez Lopez’s squad can shift their momentum and achieve more wins than draws moving forward, they still have a chance to meet those expectations and represent Asia on the world stage.

Qatar’s Inrahim Al-Hassan celebrates goal against the UAE. (Doha News/ Nader Taha)

The indirect chance

Teams that fall short of the direct qualification places will have two places to fight for.

The six sides that manage third and fourth finish in each group will then be split into two groups of three each. They will then play against each other once in a centralised venue which remains to be decided.

Finishing at the top of the group will guarantee a spot in the World Cup – fulfilling the eight spots guaranteed to Asia.

Absolute last chance (and a hard one)

The road, however, does not end here as runners-up of the three-team groups will still be in contention for a half chance.

These teams will compete in a two-leg playoff, home and away, for a chance to secure a spot in the inter-confederation playoff.

At this stage, two World Cup spots will be up for grabs, featuring six teams – one from each of FIFA’s confederations except Europe – alongside the host confederation, which in this case is North America.

The two highest-rated teams will face the winners of the initial knockout matches involving the four lower-ranked teams.

Qatar’s Ibrahim Al-Hassan, Pedro Miguel, and Lucas Mendes before the game v UAE. (Doha News/ Nader Taha)

Qatar’s chances

Qatar coach Marquez Lopez has banked on the “long campaign” to come back, despite facing early roadblocks.

“I’m confident that we can bounce back from this,” Marquez Lopez said after the opening day loss against UAE. “The chances in the group are still there. It is going to be difficult, but we are capable.”

Qatar’s next two matches are crucial, starting with a home game against Kyrgyzstan on October 10, followed by a potentially challenging away match against Iran. However, the venue for the latter is uncertain, as it may be relocated due to escalating regional tensions.