Inflation is expected to witness an increased rate by the end of 2022, almost double that of 2021, the report states.
New research predicts that Qatar’s GDP per capita could reach $100,000 in 2026 as the country’s economy continues to witness steady growth.
According to FocusEconomics’ most recent report, the GDP per person in the nation could hit an all-time high of $101,816 in 2026.
The country’s numbers stand at $81,360, but are expected to rise to $83,526 in 2030, $87,921 in 2024 and $94,818 in 2025 before hitting the targeted $100,000 one year later.
For the national GDP, FocusEconomics predicts a total of $217 billion this year, $219 billion in 2023, $228 billion in 2024, $243 billion in 2025 and $259 billion in 2026.
Meanwhile, the current account balance is projected to be $43.6 billion this year, $35.2 billion in 2023, $28.3 billion in 2024, $34.2 billion in 2025, and $40.6 billion in 2026. The estimates take the GDP growth to a total of 4.5% this year, 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast to reach 20.1 this year, 16.1 in 2023, 12.4 in 2024, 14.1 in 2025 and 15.7 in 2026, the report added.
The expected merchandise trade balance amounts to $80.9bn this year, $78bn (2023), $75bn (2024), $76bn (2025) and $81.2bn (2026). On the other hand, fiscal balance (measured as a percentage of GDP) could be 9.0 this year, 5.7 in 2023, 2.6 in 2024, 3.2 in 2025 and 3.8 in 2026.
According to FocusEconomics, the public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 45.8 this year, 41.5 in 2023, 42.1 in 2024, 41.1 in 2025 and 40 in 2026.
According to experts in the report, between 2022 and 2026, unemployment (as a proportion of the active population) will continue at 0.2.
Back on track
FocusEconomics highlighted that the economy probably picked up pace in the second quarter after expanding by 2.5% year over the first quarter of 2022.
“The private-sector PMI was at a record high in May–June, thanks to strong expansions in output and new orders. What’s more, tourism continued to boost local activity, with visitor arrivals rising 869% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May,” FocusEconomics stated.
The external sector has also benefited from rising oil and gas prices, which have boosted government coffers. In fact, Q2’s trade surplus this year has been its biggest since 2014.
However, the picture in the energy sector is more complicated; FocusEconomics reported that after increasing annually in April, the volume of energy output “contracted” in May.
“Elevated energy prices will be a key growth driver. Moreover, the non-energy sector will record strong growth, given the reduced impact of the pandemic and the upcoming FIFA World Cup. Increased trade with the Arab Quartet will also be a contributor,” it read.
“However, inflationary pressures and rising interest rates pose risks. FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.5% rise in GDP during 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% growth in 2023.”
Inflation ‘apparent’ in food, utilities
Inflation witnessed a 0.2% jump from May to June of 2022, the report revealed. The biggest price increases were seen in goods connected to recreation, electricity, and food.
In contrast to the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point increase, Qatar Central Bank (QCB) increased rates by 50 basis points in July, according to the study.
Due to increasing demand and higher commodity prices, inflation is predicted to average almost double its 2021 level this year.
Inflation is projected by FocusEconomics panelists to average 4.4% in 2022, up from the previous month’s prediction of 4.3% and 2.8% in 2023.