While authorities have yet to confirm the rumoured talks in Doha, analysts have tapped in to discuss how Qatar can be of assistance to crises-stricken Lebanon.

Lebanon’s political deadlock continues to persist more than halfway into the year, due to a prolonged presidential vacuum and a deteriorating economic situation, with the country’s post-1975 civil war political divide and endemic corruption further compounding the situation.

Lebanon has failed to elect a president a total of 12 times since former President Michel Aoun left office in October last year. However, hope for progress emerged in February after a “Quintet Meeting” -a group consisting of five parties including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, and France – first convened in Paris.

Despite the initial spark of hope, the Lebanese parliament has been unable to fill the presidential post in its most recent attempt in June.

However, attention shifted towards Qatar on Monday with Lebanese media speculating on plans for another round of the Quintet Meeting, this time in Doha.

While authorities have yet to confirm the rumoured talks, analysts have tapped in to discuss how Doha can be of assistance to crises-stricken Lebanon.

Speaking to Doha News, experts said Qatar can help promote dialogue between Lebanon’s divided parties, but the path for economic recovery remains an uphill task that would require “meaningful” reforms in Lebanon.

“What Qatar can do is facilitate the talks between internal and external actors, however, the path to economic recovery in Lebanon should be by adopting meaningful economic reforms,” Joe Macaron, an independent consultant and research analyst, virtually told Doha News.

Qatari efforts in Lebanon

In April, Qatar’s Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Mohammed Al Khulaifi met with Lebanese officials from different parties in Beirut as part of an “exploratory visit” amid the ongoing crisis.

The Gulf state had also previously played a significant role in Lebanon, most notably in 2008 when it held talks that resulted in an agreement between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah. 

Those meetings followed an 18-month political crisis which raised fears over yet another deadly civil war that could potentially bring forth similar scenes from 1975-1990. 

The 2008 talks had led to an agreement that stipulated parties would decide on an electoral law, with General Michel Suleiman being named as the country’s president at the time. 

Macaron offered more bleak expectations for the reported Quintet meeting in Qatar, saying it “is not expected to break the impasse” given that no recent movements in Lebanon have pointed towards any developments or progress to elect a president.

News on this week’s alleged meeting was first reported by Nidaa al-Watan, which cited diplomatic sources privy to the matter. According to the report, Qatar had extended an invitation to the other Quintet members for the talks though it said the date is “subject to consultation”.

A meeting on the matter also took place on Tuesday in Lebanon between Qatar’s Ambassador to Beirut Ibrahim Al Sahlawi and outgoing Saudi envoy to the country Walid Bukhari, LBC reported.

The sources added that one of the responses to the Qatari invitation suggested pushing the date from Thursday to next week, 17 July, due to “no enthusiasm” from the French side on the date.

Paris’ reported reaction comes amid ongoing efforts by French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to find a light at the end of the tunnel for Lebanon’s multi-faceted crises. 

France has reportedly suggested holding the meeting in September instead to provide the French envoy with ample time “to complete his efforts in Lebanon”, the report said.

“Sources pointed out two opinions in France regarding consultations on the presidential deadline. The first confines the consultations to the presidential deadline. In contrast, the second expands them to include the presidency, dialogue, reforms, and work programmes,” the report added.

Le-Drian is reportedly heading back to Beirut next week after a previous visit in June, but there is a lack of optimism towards a breakthrough, Lebanese media reported on Tuesday.

Divergent stances and multiple candidates

Since the start of the year, potential candidates have emerged, including Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, seen by Lebanese media as the “preferred” candidate by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Dr. Majed Al Ansari dismissed such claims and said “it is inappropriate to talk about the existence of an external party that has a preferred candidate” in Lebanon.

“What Qatar and the Arab countries can offer regarding the Lebanese crisis is to support the Lebanese to reach a consensus that will lead Lebanon out of its current crisis,” Dr. Al Ansari said, as quoted by Al Araby Al Jadeed in April.

Last month, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani stressed that “the solution is in the hands of the Lebanese and not any other country.”

The current inability to elect a president in Lebanon is not now and is in fact reminiscent of previous such occasions in Beirut’s recent history.

The presidential position was vacant between November 2007 and May 2008, during the Lebanese civil war between 1988 and 1989, and between May 2014 until October 2016.”

The latest delay has been widely attributed to differences over Hezbollah-backed, Christian politician Suleiman Frangieh, whose grandfather served as Lebanon’s president from 1970-1976.

“The primary obstacle to electing a president has been the discord over the candidacy of Frangieh, which is delaying the election process until a consensus candidate emerges[…]the remaining parliamentary blocs are searching for an alternative candidate that would eventually be accepted by Hezbollah,” Macaron said.

Hezbollah and its allied parties, notably the Amal Movement, stepped out of June’s electoral session after prominent Christian parties placed the name of the International Monetary Fund official and former Finance Minister Jihad Azour on the table.

Azour had won 59 votes out of 128 parliament’s seats whereas Frangieh received 51 votes.

According to Lebanese media, the French side is no longer involved in the proposal to nominate Frangieh.

“So far, Paris’ efforts have been able to reach a breakthrough, most notably after encouraging a deal that would elect Frangieh. France has, however, recalibrated its approach after the recent Le Drian’s visit, but it remains unlikely to be impactful given the limited French influence in Lebanon,” Macaron explained.

Lebanon society is fragmented into Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims, Druze, Maronites and other Christian sects. A number of social segments had engaged in a brutal civil war in 1975 that lasted for 15 years.

To date, the people of Lebanon believe the war has left a lasting impact on the country and has plagued its political ranks for years, leading to widespread corruption and self-serving interests among the ruling elite.

For four years, Lebanon’s economy has been facing its worst downfall since the civil war with the Lebanese Lira losing more than 90% of its value to the US dollar. 

In 2019, mass protests broke out in Beirut due to the lack of basic resources. Calls from millions of demonstrators demanding the ouster of the ruling elite echoed across the capital’s Martyrs’ Square.

The situation has further deteriorated since the Covid-19 outbreak and devastating 2020 Beirut blast. As the crisis continues, analysts have attributed the latest delays in elections to Lebanon’s fragile political system.

“Presidential elections typically last long in Lebanon due to the confessional and dysfunctional nature of the political system. There is no end in sight in the immediate future, but ultimately a consensus candidate would emerge,” Macaron noted.