Analysts said the use of a “blockade” as a strategic threat shows it has become a tried and tested method to force a country to shift its foreign policy.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, commonly known as MbS, threatened to impose a blockade on the United Arab Emirates that would have been “worse” than the 2017 embargo on Qatar, according to reports.

The Saudi de facto ruler’s shocking remarks were reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Tuesday, which cited sources who had attended a rare off-the-record briefing in December with MbS in Riyadh.

MbS reportedly told local journalists at the meeting that the UAE had “stabbed” Saudi Arabia in the back amid growing competition over regional geopolitical and economic influence, especially in the aftermath of last year’s OPEC dispute.

Sources told the WSJ that MbS and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, known as MbZ, have not spoken for more than six months, signalling a growing animosity between the two leaders.

MbS told attendees at the meeting that he had sent the UAE a list of demands and warned that the kingdom would take what the WSJ described as “punitive steps” against the Emirates if it failed to abide by them.

“It will be worse than what I did with Qatar,” MbS told the journalists, per the claims of people who attended the meeting.

The Saudi crown prince was referring to the 2017 air, land and sea embargo on Qatar, orchestrated between the kingdom and the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt. The three-year blockade attempted to isolate Qatar and weaken its economy, given that it heavily relied on imports at the time.

Analysts said the use of a “blockade” as a strategic threat shows it has become a tried and tested method to force a country to shift its foreign policy.

“The suggestion of a ‘blockade’ suggests that Bin Salman considers it to have been a success in so far as he believes that it encouraged Doha to revise its foreign policy in a manner that has restored common ground with Saudi,” Sami Hamdi, Editor-in-Chief of the International Interest, told Doha News on Wednesday.

Hamdi said that threatening with “a worse” blockade than the one imposed on Qatar also suggests that MbS felt limited during the GCC crisis.

The analyst said MbS either “felt he was limited in what he could do to Doha, or that he did not go all-out on the basis that he was not as resolved to punish Qatar in the way the UAE was.”

“Qatari officials often asserted that they felt that Saudi was being ‘misguided’ by the UAE which, they considered, was the real architect. Nevertheless, the threat suggests that Bin Salman believes a blockade can force UAE to reconsider its ambitious foreign policy,” Hamdi said.

A regional shuffle in alliances was seen following the signing of the 2021 Al-Ula Declaration, which led to the lifting of the blockade on Qatar. Ties between Qatar and Saudi Arabia almost immediately resumed and both countries witnessed mutual visits by their leaders and diplomats.

On the other hand, relations between Qatar and the UAE only began to warm months later with the visit of Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi’s deputy ruler, in August 2021. 

More notable progress was seen following MbZ’s surprise visit to Qatar last December for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The resumption of diplomatic representation however was only announced last month.

Hamdi said he does not believe that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were competing with regards to resuming ties with Qatar. 

However, he pointed to comments by United States President Joe Biden who promised to “render the Saudi Crown Prince a ‘pariah’”.

“Therefore Riyadh felt there was an imperative to reconcile with Qatar and quickly settle regional issues to focus on the incoming antagonism from Washington[…] the UAE was not under the same pressure as Saudi, and therefore did not have the same vigour, or desire, or ‘need’ for reconciliation with Qatar,” Hamdi said.

Despite the reports, Emirati and Saudi officials have separately come out to reject speculations on the alleged rivalry between their countries.

A UAE official who spoke on behalf of the Emirati government dismissed the claims as “categorically false and lack foundation” and the country’s “strategic partnership” with Saudi Arabia “is based on the same objectives and vision for regional prosperity, security, and stability.” 

The Saudi official said the claims were “simply not accurate.”

“The UAE is a close regional partner of Saudi Arabia, and our policies converge on a wide range of issues of mutual interest,” the Saudi official said.

Shifting regional alliances

The alleged rift between comes amid an increasingly competitive economic climate, with analysts pointing to Saudi efforts to lure in major companies, especially in the oil sector, taking away the spotlight from Dubai’s position as a business hub.

Some of the most notable examples outlined in the WSJ report included Saudi Arabia’s announcement in May to establish an airline that would compete against Emirates.

The OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) dispute in October over cutting down its output despite the United States’ objection to the decision further triggered a schism between the Gulf neighbours.

The UAE, one of the oil producing group’s 13 members, privately told the US and the media that it was forced by Saudi Arabia to go along with the decision, the WSJ reported. 

“Saudi Arabia may believe however that a blockade would force international companies to relocate at a time in which he is pushing hard to attract foreign investment and convince the world that Saudi should be the new economic hub for all business related to the Gulf,” Hamdi said.

The latest report has raised further questions on the impact on the rest of the region, given that Saudi Arabia and the UAE once formed alliances during their intervention in various issues, including the war in Yemen, the coup in Egypt, and Libya.

Gulf officials told the WSJ that the Saudi crown prince “feels that the Emirati president led him into disastrous conflicts” that only served the UAE’s interests.

The Saudi-led coalition, which heavily included the UAE, has engaged in deadly battles against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen since 2015, dragging the country into a dire humanitarian situation. While the UAE completed its military withdrawal from Yemen by 2020, it has continued to back fighters calling for secession in the south.

After years of violence, a China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which led to the resumption of relations between the two regional rivals, Yemen has witnessed a gradual lull in fighting.

However, concerns on the latest reported rivalry is now feared to threaten ongoing efforts to bring to an end the war in Yemen.

According to attendees at the Riyadh meeting, the Saudi crown prince reportedly told Tahnoun that the UAE should not disrupt the Saudi-led ceasefire talks in Yemen.

Officials from Washington have also expressed their own concerns over the animosity between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, saying that it would further hinder efforts aimed at ending Yemen’s war, in addition to the expansion of Israeli ties with the region.

“These are two highly ambitious people who want to be key players in the region and the go-to players,” a senior official from the Joe Biden administration told the WSJ. 

The official added: “On some level they still collaborate. Now, neither seems comfortable with the other being on the same pedestal. On balance, it’s not helpful to us for them to be at each other’s throats.”

Hamdi said that the deterioration of ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE “was inevitable”, particularly after the 2011 regional uprisings, known as the Arab Spring, “lost its potency and was no longer seen as an existential threat” to the Gulf region.

“Specific policy differences have become more pronounced in areas to do with Vision 2030, economic competition, Yemen, and oil. Moreover, there appears to have been differences over how each party viewed the alliance,” he said.