In a bold and unprecedented move, Iran warned both Qatar and the U.S. ahead of a missile strike on the Al Udeid Air Base, signalling retaliation without escalation, and reigniting debate over the true fate of its nuclear programme.
In a rare move that sparked global scrutiny and regional speculation, Iran issued a prior warning before launching missile strikes on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Tehran reportedly informed Qatar and America about its plans to launch missiles at Al Udeid. Hours later, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social, “I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”
The attack, which unfolded amid an intensifying Israel-Iran confrontation, represents a complex balancing act by Iran that was seeking to respond to U.S. military aggression without igniting a broader regional war.
But why did Tehran inform both Washington and Doha in advance? What does this ceasefire mean in practical terms? And has the Iranian nuclear programme truly been “obliterated,” as President Trump claimed?
An orchestrated attack with a diplomatic signal
On June 23, Iran fired ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. However, this wasn’t a surprise attack — it was a carefully calculated response, delivered with advance notice to both Qatar and the United States.
This unprecedented coordination highlighted Tehran’s intent to avoid casualties and wider escalation, even as it signalled retaliation for the U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites just a day earlier.
“Iran chose to give prior warning about its missile attack on Al Udeid due to its close relationship and diplomatic alliance with Qatar,” explained Dr Mohammed el-Nawawy, an analyst and professor of the Media Studies programme at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
“This illustrated Iran’s desire not to let such a strike risk its friendly ties with the Qatari leadership. In orchestrating its strike, Iran was trying to save face after the U.S. strikes against its nuclear bases, while making sure to send a message that its retaliatory strike is contained enough to not lead to further escalation,” Dr El-Nawawy told Doha News.
Iran’s decision to notify both countries in advance of its missile attack is being interpreted as a calibrated show of strength, rather than an open invitation to war.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) described the strike as part of Operation Annunciation of Victory, a direct response to what it called “blatant military aggression” by Washington.
Yet, nearly all of the 14 missiles were intercepted, and one was allowed to land in a non-threatening direction, according to U.S. Central Command.
President Trump even thanked Iran for giving them early notice, adding that “perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region.”
The message was clear: both sides were signalling strength without crossing a point of no return.
Why target Qatar’s Al Udeid?
One of the more puzzling aspects of Iran’s response was its choice to target the Al Udeid base in Qatar, rather than U.S. facilities in Iraq or Syria.
Analysts believe this choice was meant to send a clear, visible message to both Washington and Tel Aviv, without provoking regional actors beyond the intended audience.
“It was surprising that Iran chose the base in Qatar, especially as the two countries enjoy relatively warm relations,” said Dr Mohammed Hamas Elmasry, an analyst and professor in the Media Studies programme at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
“Despite this, Iran likely chose Al Udeid because of its size and symbolic value,” he said, adding that Tehran made the strike “as palatable as possible for Qatar” by providing prior notice, and that Iran has since attempted to apologise and clarify that the attack was aimed at U.S. interests, not Qatari sovereignty.
While diplomatic tensions were undoubtedly strained, the broader geopolitical consensus suggests this rift may be temporary.
Trump’s ceasefire: Fragile truce or political theatre?
The missile strikes were hours later followed by an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough: U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
The truce, dubbed “THE 12 DAY WAR” by Trump on social media, was presented as a landmark diplomatic achievement. Whether the agreement holds remains uncertain.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated: “If Israel stops its illegal aggression now, Iran has no intention to continue our response.”
Israel responded in kind, saying it had “achieved its objectives” and would honour the ceasefire unless provoked.
Dr El-Nawawy believes this development plays in Iran’s favour: “I consider this ceasefire a triumph for Iran in the sense that the current Iranian regime is still intact and has the ability to further strengthen its military arsenal.”
However, Dr Elmasry offered a cautious view: “Whether or not the ceasefire holds depends largely on Israel, the only country that has truly wanted war. Israel’s goal is to completely reshape the Middle East. Its primary goal in Iran is to instigate regime change and help install a government friendly to Israeli interests. This hasn’t been achieved”
Trump said on Tuesday that he wasn’t seeking regime change in Iran, two days after floating the idea himself in a social media post.
“I don’t want it,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “Regime change takes chaos and, ideally, we don’t want to see much chaos.”
Although the ceasefire was initially marred by mutual accusations of violations from both Iran and Israel, it appears to be holding — for now.
The fate of Iran’s nuclear programme: Destroyed or delayed?
Trump declared the U.S. strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Fordow, boasting.
He shared on Truth Social, “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons. Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.”
However, early intelligence assessments challenged this, suggesting that the programme had only been set back by a few months.
According to the New York Times, “A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings.”
The report also stated that a significant portion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile had been relocated before the strikes, which caused minimal damage to the nuclear material. It is possible that some of this material was transferred to undisclosed sites.
Sources told ABC News that the strikes did limited damage and that Iran was able to relocate highly enriched uranium stocks before the strikes occurred.
An Iranian lawmaker even claimed that “Iran’s nuclear activities will no longer be visible to inspectors,” prompting fears of a more secretive phase in the programme’s evolution, as reported by ABC News.
“Not only have Iran’s nuclear infrastructures remained intact, but Israel will soon suffer a more significant blow — when, with the majority vote of parliament, the entry of the IAEA’s spy inspectors into Iran will be blocked. After two decades of transparency, Iran’s nuclear activities will no longer be visible to inspectors, and the West will soon have to get used to ‘ambiguity around Iran’s nuclear programme,'” he said.
Dr Elmasry shared similar predictions on the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions: “In the aftermath of all of this, I think Iran will be much more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon. The lesson for Iran — and other countries in the region — is that the only reliable way to deter Israeli aggression is to possess nuclear capability.”
He added, “Trump claimed the US ‘obliterated’ the Iranian nuclear programme in its attack on Saturday. This is highly unlikely. And even if it is true, Iran can rebuild. If Iran does go on to develop a nuclear weapon, the war launched by Israel will have backfired.”
