Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidency, ushering in potential shifts in foreign policy amid significant domestic and regional challenges.
Masoud Pezeshkian, a prominent reformist, clinched victory over the weekend, an outcome political analysts say could bring notable changes, though the path forward remains loaded with challenges.
Pezeshkian secured the presidency with 53.7% of the votes, with a total of 16.3 million out of over 30 million ballots cast. His opponent and runner up Saeed Jalili received 44.3% of the vote, amounting to 13.5 million.
Pezeshkian has distinguished himself as the sole non-conservative candidate in the recent Iranian presidential race.
The nuclear deal
Backed by prominent reformists such as former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Pezeshkian’s victory on Friday hints at the possibility of pursuing a key reformist foreign policy objective: renegotiating the nuclear deal to alleviate economic sanctions and ease tensions with the West.
The 2015 nuclear agreement, involving Iran, China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
This deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed during Hassan Rouhani’s centrist presidency, raised hopes for Iran’s economic revival. However, those hopes were dashed in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement and imposed stringent new sanctions, fuelling Iran’s assertions that the West was untrustworthy.
Since then, attempts to revive the deal have largely stalled.
Pezeshkian’s approach promises a departure from the current administration’s focus on sanctions neutralisation, with an emphasis on the pursuit of sanctions relief through negotiations with the West, experts say.
“Pezeshkian has made it clear that he will seek sanctions relief and pursue negotiations with the West for that purpose. This would be a shift from the current approach that prioritises sanctions neutralisation rather than sanctions relief,” Dr Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the U.S. think tank Quincy Institute told Doha News.
“But the fundamentals of the situation differ tremendously compared to 2013. The core bargain in the JCPOA is no longer attractive to either side.”
The specifics of Pezeshkian’s approach to sanctions relief, however, will need to adapt to these new realities.
“Diplomacy can still be very helpful, but the old JCPOA is not likely to be revived. Also, it is not clear whether there will be much appetite in Washington for renewed diplomacy with Iran,” Dr Parsi told Doha News.
Meanwhile, the common sentiment among experts seems to be that continuity will outweigh change.
“Iran’s foreign policy basics are part of the general policies of the political system, which according to the constitution (Article 110) are in the hands of the Supreme Leader,” Assistant Professor at the University of Tehran Dr Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas told Doha News.
Regional influence and the war in Gaza
On the regional front, Pezeshkian’s presidency could reinforce Iran’s efforts to mend and strengthen relations with neighbouring Arab states.
Experts suggests that Iran might leverage its influence over the Gaza issue.
“Efforts to improve relations with Arab states is likely to continue. But Iran may also now be able to raise its profile on the Gaza issue and potentially pressure Arab governments to do more for the Palestinians by playing the Arab streets against the Arab governments,” Dr Parsi said.
“This may not be the path that Iran chooses to pursue, but Pezeshkian’s foreign policy team will be more adept at creating new options for Iran.”
Pezeshkian’s victory unfolds against the backdrop of Israel’s ongoing genocidal war in Gaza and the looming threat of a broader war with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In April, escalating regional tensions were evident when Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel in response to an Israeli assault on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders.
“The main pillars of Iran’s regional policy are defined by the supreme leader because that is a matter of territorial integrity according to Iranian officials. So we should not expect any changes regarding its basics. However, Implementation of such policies is both in the hands of the administration and the IRGC,” Dr Yazdanshenas told Doha News.
The IRGC also plays a crucial role in executing these policies through its support of the Axis of Resistance, a network of Iran’s state and non-state allies.
While Pezeshkian has declared his support for the Axis by sending a message to Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, Dr Yazdanshenas said the administration’s role will primarily involve advancing diplomatic initiatives rather than altering fundamental regional strategies.
Meanwhile, experts believe Pezeshkian’s administration will look to enhance economic and trade ties and pursue normalisation of relations with countries like Egypt and Bahrain.
“The administration would be in charge of advancing diplomatic initiatives to upgrade bilateral and multilateral relations in the region with different countries like the Arab nations in the Persian Gulf,” Dr Yazdanshenas told Doha News.
‘Iran trusts Qataris more than other GCC members’
In terms of relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Pezeshkian is likely to continue seeking improved diplomatic ties, with a particular focus on attracting economic investments from these states into Iran.
Experts point out that the relationship with Qatar, which has historically played a mediating role between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to remain robust.
However, if Iran opts for direct negotiations with the U.S., as Pezeshkian has indicated, Qatar’s mediatory role may diminish, Dr Parsi told Doha News: “Its relationship with Qatar is likely to remain strong, but the role that Qatar has played as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran may wind down if the Iranians pursue direct negotiations with Washington, as Pezeshkian said he would.”
Qatar played a central role in the historic Iran and U.S. prisoner swap in September 2023, which saw five prisoners released by each side in exchange for unlocking $6 billion worth of Iranian assets.
There is a national consensus among Iran’s foreign policymakers, including the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the administration, the parliament, and the IRGC, on the importance of strengthening ties with GCC members, Dr Yazdanshenas told Doha News.
“Among the members of the council, Qatar is of greater importance to Iran as Iran has less conflict of interest with Doha. Iran also trusts Qataris more than other members of the council. So, I think the new administration would be quite eager to expand bilateral ties with Doha,” she said.
Sanctions, hijab, and more domestic affairs
Despite the differing stances of presidential candidates, the Iranian president’s power is within limits. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC wield significant influence, especially in foreign policy matters.
This poses a challenge for a reformist president like Pezeshkian in engaging with the West, particularly given Iran’s regional interests.
With regards to domestic policies, the new president-elect is expected to have “more room for maneuver” compared to foreign policy, experts say.
“As Iran’s economy is mainly based on revenues acquired from selling energy sources, the new administration has significant power to regulate interest rates, control inflation rates, and regulations regarding paying taxes,” Dr Yazdanshenas told Doha News.
“Therefore, in the field of economy, the executive branch would be able to change the current course if it wants,” she added.
Pezeshkian has also promised a different attitude towards social restrictions, such as internet filtering and the enforcement of the Hijab law.
“Different governmental institutions as well as some traditional bases of the society also have a loud voice in forming and implementing such laws. Therefore, I believe Pezeshkian would face difficulties in pursuing some of his supporters’ socio-political expectations,” Yazdanshenas said.
While the IRGC traditionally handles regional policies, nuclear negotiations with global powers remain a priority.
For Iranians, nuclear diplomacy is key as it directly influences the economy, which is the foremost concern for most citizens.
