Fitch affirmed Qatar’s AA credit rating with a stable outlook, citing strong financial buffers despite temporary disruptions to energy exports caused by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s Long Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at “AA” with a stable outlook, citing the country’s strong financial position, large overseas assets and expected growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.
The “AA” rating reflects Qatar’s very high income levels, strong sovereign assets and flexible public finances, according to the agency.
Fitch said the country’s economic outlook remains stable despite the ongoing regional conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted energy exports and shipping routes in the Gulf.
The agency said the war has effectively halted most of Qatar’s oil and gas exports because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which the majority of the country’s hydrocarbon exports normally pass.
With shipping traffic disrupted, nearly all energy exports have stopped except for the Dolphin pipeline to the UAE, which accounts for roughly 10 percent of Qatar’s hydrocarbon exports.
Storage facilities have reached capacity, and LNG production at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, which handles most of the country’s liquefaction capacity, has been suspended following an Iranian attack.
The Fitch report said it expects the facility to remain closed during the conflict and that production could take several weeks to ramp back up once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.
“We assume a resumption of gas production once traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalises. Our baseline scenario is that the closure will last less than a month,” the report said.
It also expects limited damage to hydrocarbon infrastructure and forecasts Brent crude prices to average around $70 per barrel in 2026.
The Fitch report said it expects the facility to remain closed during the conflict and that production could take several weeks to ramp back up once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.
“We assume a resumption of gas production once traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalises. Our baseline scenario is that the closure will last less than a month,” the report said.
It also expects limited damage to hydrocarbon infrastructure and forecasts Brent crude prices to average around $70 per barrel in 2026.
Under this scenario, Qatar’s government budget surplus is expected to narrow sharply to 0.3 percent of GDP in 2026, down from 2.8 percent in 2025, as energy revenues fall and government spending increases to support the economy and fund military needs.
However, the surplus is projected to recover strongly once LNG production increases, reaching about 4.1 percent of GDP in 2027 and more than 7 percent by 2030.
Economic growth is also expected to slow in 2026 due to reduced energy output and weaker activity in sectors such as transport and tourism, which are sensitive to regional security risks.
Fitch said Qatar’s long-term outlook remains strong because of major expansion projects in its gas sector.
State energy company QatarEnergy plans to increase LNG production capacity to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027, up from about 77 million tonnes in 2025, with further expansion planned to reach 142 million tonnes annually by 2030.
The agency said logistical challenges linked to the war could delay the first phase of the North Field expansion project until 2027.
The country also benefits from very large external financial buffers.
Fitch estimates sovereign net foreign assets reached about $494 billion, or 227 percent of GDP, in 2025, far above the median for similarly rated countries.
These assets, including investments managed by the Qatar Investment Authority, could be used to support the economy or banking sector if needed.
The rating agency noted several structural risks.
Qatar’s economy remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, and government debt is somewhat higher than some other highly rated oil-exporting countries.
The banking sector is also large relative to the economy, creating potential liabilities for the government if financial stress occurs.
